Friday, April 14, 2006

some hands, etc.

from oaks 6/12, a great game, loose and passive.

I'm under the gun with AsKs, I raise, four callers plus the blinds.

flop (14 sb, 7 players) Qs4s2d
check, check, I bet, two folds, MP raises, button calls cold, blinds
fold, I 3-bet, MP calls, button caps, I call, MP calls.

my thought process here was that I have 9 outs to the nut flush, plus
3-6 overcard outs (possibly someone has AQ or KQ), plus the backdoor
straight draw, so let's say conservatively 12 outs; which is 44%
equity; with two callers the cap was profitable.

turn (13 bb, 3 players) Qh
check, check, button bets, call, call.

this was a bad card as it a) killed my overcard outs and b) made it possible for me to hit my flush and still lose. at this point I have to put one of these guys on a Q, so if I lead I'm
just going to get raised. I figure now I have ~7 outs (discounting the spade that pairs the kicker of the guy with a Q, and the 2s which pairs the board), so there's no point in putting bets in as a much bigger underdog, but I'm getting 15-1 so I have to call.

river (16 bb, 3 players) 5s
I bet, MP calls, button agonizes and mucks a Q face up. My hand is good for 18 bb.

on the river, I considered going for a check-raise, but the button reacted very badly to the flush card, almost announcing that he believed he was beat, so if it was checked to him, I felt sure he would just check it through. That meant I was depending on MP to bet, but a) he was extremely passive, calling frequently when beat but b) content to just showdown for free if possible. if he had a smaller flush as ML suggested, he might bet. he would check a weak queen, and probably also a hand like 77-TT he stuck with too long. (entirely characteristic of this player.) so I figured betting was best. what about the possibility of a full house and the risk of a raise? for the button to have a full house he would need 22 or 44, but to just have trips he could have anything from AQs-Q9o (this seems wide but is definitely within button's range). I just thought a queen was the likeliest holding, and I really believed my read that the button hated his hand on the river. in fact, he didn't even call one bet in an 18 bb pot.

bankroll, $3,866 podsedniks
I think I have an ulcer
np, new built to spill

2 Comments:

Blogger Daniel Habib said...

it's all right, have only listened a few times.

apologies if I should know this, but who are you, clint richardson?

2:36 PM  
Blogger messkimo said...

blau

5:53 PM  

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